MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS OF THE ROLE OF DETECTION RATE IN THE DYNAMICAL SPREAD OF HIV-TB CO-INFECTION

Abstract

Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) co-existing with Tuberculosis (TB) in individuals remains a major global health challenges, with an estimated 1.4 million patients worldwide. These two diseases are enormous public health burden, and unfortunately, not much has been done in terms of modeling the dynamics of HIV-TB co-infection at a population level. We formulated new fifteen (15) compartmental models to gain more insight into the effect of treatment and detection of infected undetected individuals on the dynamical spread of HIV- TB co-infection. Sub models of HIV and TB only were considered first, followed by the full HIV-TB co-infection model. Existence and uniqueness of HIV and TB only model were analyzed quantitatively, and we shown that HIV model only and TB only model have solutions, moreover, the solutions are unique. Stability of HIV model only, TB model only and full model of HIV-TB co-infection were analyzed for the existence of the disease free and endemic equilibrium points. Basic reproduction number () was analyzed, using next generation matrix method (NGM), and it has been shown that the disease free equilibrium point is locally asymptotically stable whenever  and unstable whenever this threshold exceeds unity. i.e., Numerical simulation was carried out by maple software using differential transformation method, to show the effect of  treatment and detection of infected undetected individuals on the dynamical spread of HIV-TB co-infection. Significantly, all the results obtained from this research show the importance of treatment and detection of infected undetected individuals on the dynamical spread of HIV-TB co-infection. Detection rate of infected undetected individuals reduce the spread of HIV-TB co-infections.