A Stochastic Model to Predict Road Accidents in Albania

Denisa Kacorri (Salillari); Anita  Caushi; Albina  Basholli; Luela  Prifti

doi:10.24297/jam.v23i.9656

Authors

Denisa Kacorri (Salillari) Department of Mathematical Engineering, Polytechnic University of Tirana, ALBANIA
Anita Caushi Department of Mathematical Engineering, Polytechnic University of Tirana, ALBANIA
Albina Basholli Department of Mathematical Engineering, Polytechnic University of Tirana, ALBANIA
Luela Prifti Department of Mathematical Engineering, Polytechnic University of Tirana, ALBANIA

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.24297/jam.v23i.9656

Keywords:

Albania, Accidents, SARIMA, Forecast, Time series

Abstract

The importance of predicting accident rates lies in the improvement of road infrastructure and the effective implementation of laws and traffic regulations. The statistical change of many phenomena over time is described by time series. This paper aims to forecast the number of individuals involved in road accidents in Albania by applying SARIMA model approach. This study used monthly number of individuals involved in road traffic accidents in Albania from 2016 to 2023. Using forecasting techniques for the number of traffic accidents can serve as a valuable strategy for achieving various objectives including the implementation of traffic safety campaigns, strategies, and action plans outlined in traffic safety initiatives. The model was found to be effective in capturing the underlying patterns and trends in the data, providing valuable insights for understanding and forecasting traffic accident occurrences in Albania.

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References

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