Expectation of Rice Pod Production in Iraq  by Using Time Series

Gorgees Shaheed  Mohammad

doi:10.24297/jam.v20i.9028

Authors

Gorgees Shaheed Mohammad University of AL-Qadisiyah, College of Education, Department of Mathematics, IRAQ

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.24297/jam.v20i.9028

Keywords:

Box Jenkins Models, integrative moving averages, analysis methods, Rice pods, Autoregression Model

Abstract

The research aims to shed light on the reality of the production of Rice pods in Iraq during the period of time (1943-2019) and its development with time, then predict the production of Rice pods based on three Models of prediction Models, which are the time regression Model on production, in addition to studying the effect of harvested area on production quantities. Then forecasting the production of the Rice pods according to the Model of the regression of the harvested area on the production, the Autoregression Model, and the integrative moving averages (Box Jenkins Models), and in the end the comparison between the expected values of production through the three Models to know the best Model to represent the time series of production of the Rice pods , through the use of the statistical program (SPSS (, Based on annual secondary data represented by the quantities of Rice pods, and the size of the harvested areas of this material in Iraq for the period from 1945 until 2019 obtained from (Central Statistical Organization, Iraq, 2020)

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