Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts on Cotton Yield using Cropsyst and Regression Models

Abstract

The regional as well as the international crop production is expected to be influenced by climate change. This study describes an assessment of simulated potential cotton yield using CropSyst, a cropping systems simulation model, in Northern Greece. CropSyst was used under the General Circulation Model CGCM3.1/T63 of the climate change scenario SRES B1 for time periods of climate change 2020-2050 and 2070-2100 for two planting dates. Additionally, an appraisal of the relationship between climate variables, potential evapotranspiration and cotton yield was done based on regression models. Multiple linear regression models based on climate variables and potential evapotranspiration could be used as a simple tool for the prediction of crop yield changes in response to climate change in the future. The CropSyst simulation under SRES B1, resulted in an increase by 6% for the period 2020-2050 and a decrease by about 15% in cotton yield for 2070-2100. For the earlier planting date a higher increase and a slighter reduction was observed in cotton yield for 2020-2050 and 2070-2100, respectively. The results indicate that alteration of crop management practices, such as changing the planting date could be used as potential adaptation measures to address the impacts of climate change on cotton production.